Sunday, April 20, 2008

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook

Despite edging higher to new record high of 1.5983 last week, EUR/USD was once again limited below 1.6 psychological level. Friday's sell off left the rise from 1.5671 to 1.5983 in three wave structure, invalidating the prior discussed scenario that price actions from 1.5902 are in form of an ascending triangle consolidation that's completed at 1.5671. Indeed, based on current information, with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD and CCI as background, the most likely scenario is that correction from 1.5902 completed at 1.5342. Subsequent price actions from 1.5342 is in form of a diagonal triangle which will conclude a larger five wave rally.

Have said that, 1.5983 is likely at least a short term top. Further break of 1.5671 support will add much more credence to this case and bring deeper decline towards 1.5342 cluster support first (38.2% retracement of 1.4309 to 1.5983 at 1.5344). Meanwhile, even if a stronger than expected rebound is seen from here, outlook won't change until sustained break of 1.6000 psychological resistance. That is, even in such case, the next rise will be weak and short-lived and another steep fall should be around the corner.

In the bigger picture, focus now turns to 1.5342 cluster support. Sustained break will also have 55 days EMA (now at 1.5396) taken out too. That will be another sign of a medium term top and in such case, will encourage deeper decline to 1.4309/4966 support zone. On the upside, as mentioned above, firm break above 1.5983 is now needed to reinitiate that case the recent rally is still in force.

In the longer term picture, there are various interpretations of the medium term up trend from 1.1639 but none of them is really convincing yet. Rather than focusing on the structure, we'd like to emphasize the pattern of a series of higher highs and higher lower since 1.1639 and as long as this pattern remains, the up trend from 1.1639 is more likely in progress than not. In other words, focus is on 1.4309 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.1639 to 1.5983 at 1.4324). As long as this support cluster support holds and before any other clear sign of medium term reversal, this rise from 1.1639 is still expected to extend further. And, such rally is is treated as resumption of long term up trend from 0.8223 (00 low) to 1.3668 (04 high) and could still extend to 100% projection of 0.8223 to 1.3668 from 1.1639 at 1.7084, even prolonged medium term consolidation will take place before resumption. However, sustained break of this 1.4309 cluster support, which will also have 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.4423) taken out too, will argue that the whole up trend from 1.1639 has already completed and have medium term outlook turned bearish.

Saturday, April 19, 2008


I am your constant companion,
I am your greatest helper or your heaviest burden.
I will push you onward or drag you down to failure.
I am at your command.

Half of the tasks that you do you might just as well
turn over to me and I will do them quickly and correctly.

I am easily managed; you must merely be firm with me.
Show me exactly how you want something done.
After a few lessons, I will do it automatically.

I am the servant of all great people
And the regret of all failures as well.
Those who are great, I have made great.
Those who are failures, I have made failures.

I am not a machine but I will work with all its precision
Plus the intelligence of a person.

Now you may run me for profit or you may run me for ruin.
It makes no difference to me.

Take me, train me, be firm with me and
I will lay the world at your feet.
Be easy with me and I will destroy you.

I am called Habit!

--author unknown

Thursday, April 17, 2008

US CFTC Financial Data

For the latest financial data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission as of March 31, 2008, click here. You wouldn't want to trade foreign exchange when the broker is not in this list just like last year's PIPC scam.

Monday, April 7, 2008

Weekly Pivots

The pivot points for this week, which can be used as support & resistance lines for the major currencies such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD, GBP/JPY. Trade well!

Thursday, April 3, 2008

Quotes on Optimism

Optimism is an intellectual choice -Diana Schneider.

A positive mental attitude is rooted in clear, calm, & honest self-confidence

Optimism is what you do, how you live-- Andrea Dworkin

Think of all the beauty still left around you and be happy--Anne Frank

Keep your face to the sunshine and you cannot see the shadows --Helen Keller

Many a man curses the rain that falls upon his head, & knows not that it brings abundance to drive away hunger -Saint Basil

Life has its ups and downs... sometimes, the sun shines, sometimes the rain pours.... but don't forget that it takes both the sun & the rain to make a rainbow-unknown

tagging is fun!

thanks to farah for this tag.

~~Begin Copy~~This is the easy way and the fastest way to :1. Make your Authority Technorati explode.2. Increase your Google Page Rank.3. Get more traffic to your blog.4. Makes more new friends.Rules :1. Start copy from “Begin Copy” until “End Copy” to your blog (for bloggers paste on the "compose" not the "edit html" part in posting blogs so it will be linked automatically).2. Put your own blog name and link.3. Tag your friends as much as you can. 1. Picturing of Life 2. Juliana’s Site e3. Hazel-My Life, My Hope, My Future. 4. Jeanne-The Callalily Space 5. Starz in De Sky 6. My Charmed Life 7. Denz Techtronics .8. Denz Recreational 9. Life’s Simple Pleasures 10. My Blog 11. Because Life is Fun 12. In This Game of Life 13. Scribbles of my Life 14. Changing Lanes 15.coffeenchoclate 16. YOU'RE NEXT ~~End Copy~~

I am tagging my new blogmates : chinoh, gracie, gracey, gracey2, jasa, jhen, joytoy, kerslyn, natz, renz, retche


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