Wednesday, July 30, 2008

Oil Comment

Technical Repor t :

We had another ‘outside day’ yesterday with a close well below Monday’s low which is a very bearish chart pattern. Another bearish factor is that we crossed down and closed below the 100 day moving average, the first time we have been below that since early February. The fact that we took out the low of 05/06/08 ($121.32)is a worry for the long term trend as we need to see higher peaks and troughs for the trend to remain intact .

The short and medium term trends are down while the long term trends remain bullish.

Support: $120.88 (Yesterdays low) Resistance: $130.50(low of 10/06/08)

Support: $117.56 (high of 25/04/08) Resistance: $126.79 (yesterday’s high)

Support : $114.31 (low of 05/05/08) Resistance: $126.61 (9 day moving average)


Earlier in the month the news of explosions in two pipelines in Nigeria would have sent us to t he moon. Especially with Shell calling Force Majeure on Nigerian shipments, the continuing concerns of the Middle East and Hurricanes flying around but we broke through major support on the basis of a strong dollar and a technically weak chart . As mentioned before it is not so much the news but how the market reacts to it that is important and we can see that there is not a great appetite for Oil at the moment and the continuing bearish technical picture should suggest a further test of support levels. As always on a Wednesday, the DOE stats could send us rapidly in any direction.

DOE Stock Estimates (Change in millions bbls)

Crude -0.9 Gasoline +0.1 Distillate +1.7

1 comment:

desperateblogger said...

hey! long time! i changed skin and somehow must have gotten your link all wrong. everytime i click the link, no blogger.. kaya pala.. mali talaga link ko


RISK WARNING: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your monetary objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your deposited funds and therefore you should not speculate with capital that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent advisor if you have any doubts. Past returns are not indicative of future results.
This blog, assume no responsibility for errors, inaccuracies or omissions in these materials and shall not be liable for any special, indirect, incidental, or consequential damages, including without limitation losses, lost revenues, or lost profits that may result from these materials.


click on the label cloud above to view other blog posts